Lessons for fixing failed states: the need of glue
Um país dividido, com uma complexa engenharia política de duas entidades, uma sérvia, outra croata-muçulmana dividida em cantões, com 14 governos e uma autoridade tripartida, onde as mentalidades ainda funcionam com a psicologia de guerra.
Quando não conseguem chegar a acordo, Paddy Asdown (a quem chamam “crashdown”) decide e aceitam-no; mas sabem que tem força.
No terreno mantém-se uma força de 6.500 homens da União Europeia.
Se saíssem a luta poderia recomeçar; assim talvez a próxima geração possa finalizar o processo de adesão à União Europeia (a cola que faltava).
Não é bonito mas o pau (a força militar) e a cenoura (a riqueza, no caso a adesão à UE) parecem continuar a ser o único método que funciona... quando é possível.
How do you prevent failed states from becoming launch pads for terrorism?
How do you turn them into functioning democracies?
How do you intervene effectively to serve the citizens of those states and the citizens of the global community?
The poverty, lawlessness and political confrontation that were the immediate legacy of Bosnia's three-and-a-half-year war could have turned the country into a black hole, a staging post for transnational crime and terrorism, consigning its citizens to the status of pariahs.
Yet today Bosnia is a stable democracy with a growing economy about to begin negotiating accession to the European Union and ready to participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace.
It has passed through the gates that lead to Euro-Atlantic integration, moving from the era of Dayton to the era of Brussels.
What worked? Military force, judiciously applied.
A NATO-led force of 60,000 peacekeepers was deployed in the winter of 1995 to support the political settlement.
Troops on their own can't do the job, but political reconstruction can work only if supported by credible military capability.
Economic reforms undertaken preparatory to the launch of EU accession talks have produced major improvements in the business environment: The prospect of full integration in Europe has served as a powerful and popular incentive. Growth in gross domestic product this year is projected at 5.6 percent, the fastest in the Balkans.
Inflation stands at 0.5 percent, the lowest in the Balkans.
Foreign direct investment, industrial production and exports are all up.
I am not about to prescribe glib solutions for Iraq or Afghanistan or other failed states.
But Bosnia has worked.
This is a country that could have failed its own people and could have become an international economic and security liability.
Instead it is a stable and increasingly viable democracy.
Its lessons should not be ignored.
Paddy Ashdown, High representative of the international community for Bosnia-Herzegovina
(International Herald Tribune November 21, 2005)